Peak season is here and this week brought a rush of data, deadlines, and signals that matter for every shipper navigating BFCM performance and the upcoming Christmas crunch.

From record-breaking ecommerce volume to evolving carrier risks and shifting global sourcing strategies, here are the top stories shaping fulfillment, transportation planning, and cost control across the North American supply chain.

Below are the 5 key stories and what they mean for shippers, operators, and logistics leaders this week.

The Top 5 Shipping & Fulfillment Stories This Week

1. Record BFCM Ecommerce Volume Tests, and Validates, Carrier Capacity

Black Friday/Cyber Monday 2025 shattered expectations. Shopify reported $6.2 billion in global sales with a peak of $5.1 million per minute, confirming that the pandemic-era ecommerce surge is here to stay.

Unlike past years, the parcel network has held strong. Carriers avoided the widespread congestion seen in 2020–2022, suggesting that years of investment in automation, expanded sortation capacity, and network redesigns are finally paying off. However, the coming weeks will give us further insight into carrier capacity as Cyber Monday is now in full swing.

What It Means for Shippers

• Shift from survival to cost optimization. If your BFCM flows didn’t break the network, it’s time to evaluate your cost-per-shipment, not just your service reliability.
• Use BFCM as your stress test. Compare carriers and service levels side-by-side to determine who performed best under peak pressure.
• Refine your carrier mix now. Peak season is the best moment to validate which providers are truly scalable for 2026.

2. Stable Freight Market Creates Cost-Saving Opportunities for Non-Parcel Shippers

While parcel demand spiked, the broader freight market is being labeled “flat”, a long, steady plateau rather than the sharp holiday peak typically seen in November and December.

With retailers well-stocked and general consumer spending more cautious, LTL and truckload capacity remains widely available.

What It Means for Shippers

• Negotiate aggressively. Carriers don’t have as much leverage this season, a rare opportunity for lower LTL and TL rates.
• Move big inventory now. Stable capacity means now is the ideal moment to reposition stock to regional FCs for faster final-mile delivery.
• Lock in Q1 pricing early. Current softness may not last; secure favorable 2026 rates before the market resets.

3. Carrier Readiness Varies Sharply as Peak Season Pressure Builds

Carriers are publicly confident, but not all are equally prepared.

• USPS increased daily processing capacity from 60M → 88M packages, a significant jump.
• UPS is emphasizing new investments in flexibility and visibility tools.
• FedEx, however, faces warnings from its pilot union about operational strain, raising concerns about potential service disruptions.

What It Means for Shippers

• Monitor performance daily. Scan delays, missed pickups, and slow first scans are early warning signs of network strain.
• Diversify where possible. If you rely heavily on a single carrier (especially FedEx), plan contingencies now, not mid-December.
• Leverage USPS Ground Advantage. USPS’s improved throughput and reliability make this service a cost-efficient option for many packages this season.

4. Global Supply Chain Rerouting Accelerates as Geopolitical Risk Rises

New export controls in China are pushing more European and North American companies to diversify manufacturing footprints outside the country.

This continues a multi-year trend: reshoring, nearshoring, and China-plus-one sourcing strategies are becoming the norm rather than the exception.

What It Means for Shippers

• Reduce single-country risk. Evaluate suppliers, contract manufacturers, and materials dependencies for geopolitical exposure.
• Plan for a North American fulfillment footprint. Sourcing shifts only help if your distribution network adapts accordingly.
• Expect long-term structural change. As production moves closer to the U.S., freight lanes, inventory strategies, and lead times will change as well.

5. Final Holiday Delivery Deadlines Are Here and Non-Negotiable

USPS, UPS, and FedEx have released their final cutoff dates for on-time delivery by December 25:

• USPS Ground Advantage: Dec 16
• USPS First-Class Mail: Dec 17
• UPS/FedEx Ground: Generally Dec 13–16 (service-level dependent)
  

With customer expectations higher than ever, missing these dates can directly impact CSAT, chargebacks, and repeat purchase rate.

What It Means for Shippers

• Communicate everywhere. Update product pages, checkout messaging, email campaigns, and internal FC documentation immediately.
• Prioritize high-value customers. Use analytics to identify VIP or high-LTV orders and upgrade their shipping automatically if needed.
• Audit cutoffs continuously. Carriers may tighten operational capacity as Christmas nears. Stay alert for service changes.

Other Notable Logistics Developments

• USPS parcel share likely to rise as Ground Advantage gains traction during peak.
• Air cargo spot rates remain elevated, particularly on Asia–U.S. lanes, driven by BFCM replenishment cycles and capacity imbalances.
• Retailers are front-loading January stock, using the soft freight market to move Q1 inventory at lower cost.

The Bottom Line

Peak season 2025 is shaping up to be the most efficient in years, but not without risks.

Record ecommerce demand, uneven carrier readiness, geopolitical pressures, and immovable holiday deadlines mean shippers must stay agile, data-driven, and proactive.