Shipping and logistics are kicking off 2026 with major disruptions, and opportunities, that will directly impact costs, capacity, and global fulfillment strategies. From potential tariff refunds worth billions to carrier network shakeups and sudden ocean rate increases, the first full week of the year is already forcing shippers to rethink their plans.

We’ve pulled together the five most important shipping and logistics stories this week, along with clear explanations of what they mean for your business and how to respond.

The Top 5 Shipping Stories This Week

1. Tariff Uncertainty Creates Massive Cash Flow Risk for Importers

What’s Happening

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule any day on the legality of the “emergency” tariffs imposed in 2025. If the court strikes them down, U.S. importers could collectively seek up to $150 billion in tariff refunds. While no decision was issued during the Court’s January 9 session, legal experts believe a ruling is imminent.

For shippers, this isn’t just a policy debate, it’s a direct hit to landed costs, cash flow planning, and financial forecasting.

What It Means for Shippers

If you’ve been importing goods affected by these tariffs, you may be entitled to significant refunds, but only if your paperwork is in order. Even with a favorable ruling, the refund process is expected to be slow and complex.

Smaller brands may not realize they’re eligible, while enterprise shippers risk leaving millions unclaimed without proper filings.

What You Should Do Now

Review tariff payments from the past 12 months, confirm classification accuracy, and ensure all customs documentation is complete. Many companies are filing protective refund claims now to avoid missing short post-ruling deadlines.

2. Carrier Facility Closures Reshape Parcel Shipping Networks

What’s Happening

UPS and FedEx are accelerating major network restructuring. UPS has announced facility closures across Alabama, North Carolina, and Michigan, part of its largest network reduction in company history. At the same time, FedEx’s “Network 2.0” overhaul is triggering new layoffs and consolidations, particularly in Texas.

The goal: fewer facilities, more automation, and centralized hubs.

What It Means for Shippers

As carriers reduce their physical footprint, some regions will experience longer last-mile distances, potential delivery delays, or new surcharges. Areas that once had nearby hubs may now be served from farther away, even if service levels stay officially “the same.”

This matters especially for brands shipping high daily parcel volumes or relying on fast delivery promises.

What You Should Do Now

Review shipping performance in the Southeast and Midwest. If your fulfillment centers are near affected facilities, talk with carrier reps about contingency routing and alternative service levels before issues show up on customer orders.

3. AI-Powered Fulfillment Expands as 3PLs Consolidate

What’s Happening

On January 5, Stord acquired Shipwire from CEVA Logistics, adding 12 global fulfillment locations and integrating Shipwire’s AI-driven fulfillment technology. This signals a broader shift in the 3PL market toward AI systems that actively make decisions, not just track inventory.

These platforms can automatically route orders, rebalance stock, and reduce shipping costs in real time.

What It Means for Shippers

Global fulfillment is becoming more accessible. Mid-sized brands can now leverage the same optimization tools once reserved for enterprise shippers, without building complex internal systems.

For brands scaling internationally, fulfillment strategy is increasingly a technology decision, not just a warehouse decision.

What You Should Do Now

Evaluate whether your current 3PL is investing in AI-driven routing and inventory optimization. In 2026, fulfillment partners that rely heavily on manual decision-making may struggle to compete on speed and cost.

4. Ocean Freight Rates Jump as Capacity Tightens Ahead of Lunar New Year

What’s Happening

Ocean spot rates into North America have surged sharply. According to Maersk, West Coast rates are up 41% and East Coast rates 25% since early December. The increase is driven by front-loaded Lunar New Year shipping and seven scheduled “blank sailings” in February, which reduce available vessel capacity.

The low-rate environment of late 2025 has officially ended.

What It Means for Shippers

Higher ocean rates mean higher landed costs, especially for businesses still relying on the spot market. Shippers risk cargo being “rolled” to later sailings if capacity fills up, which can disrupt inventory availability and sales plans.

Even brands with modest import volumes may feel the impact through higher supplier or fulfillment costs.

What You Should Do Now

If your imports are critical to Q1 sales, explore short-term contracts or premium space guarantees. Locking in capacity now, even at higher rates, can be more cost-effective than delays and stockouts later.

5. Mexico Raises Import Tariffs, Complicating Nearshoring Strategies

What’s Happening

As of January 1, Mexico increased tariffs by 10% to 50% on more than 1,000 products, mainly targeting goods originating from China, South Korea, and India. Combined with a new Mexican Customs Law, this move aims to protect domestic manufacturing, but creates new challenges for companies using Mexico as a nearshoring hub.

What It Means for Shippers

The long-standing strategy of routing Asian components through Mexico to reduce tariff exposure is becoming far less effective. For many manufacturers and assemblers, total landed costs may rise sharply.

This change affects everything from automotive parts to electronics and consumer goods.

What You Should Do Now

Conduct a component origin audit for products assembled or processed in Mexico. You may need to adjust upstream sourcing toward North American or trade-friendly countries to preserve the benefits of nearshoring.

The Bottom Line

The first full week of 2026 makes one thing clear: shipping conditions are tightening, not easing. Tariff uncertainty, carrier consolidation, rising ocean rates, and changing nearshoring economics are all reshaping how goods move, and how much they cost to deliver.

For shippers of all sizes, the advantage will go to those who stay informed, audit their exposure early, and work proactively with carriers, brokers, and fulfillment partners.